نویسندگان
چکیده
شناسایی انواع خرابی سیستم‌ها به خصوص در مورد محصولات حیاتی و حساس و محاسبة قابلیت اطمینان آنها قبل از به‌کارگیری، نقش مؤثری در بهبود طراحی این سیستم‌ها ایفا می‌کند. از سویی دیگر، تخمین قابلیت اطمینان برخی از سیستم‌ها مانند اکثر محصولات فضایی به علت فقدان یا کمبود داده بسیار مشکل و بعضًا نشدنی است. روش شبکه‌های بیزین روش گرافیکی بسیار قوی و کارآ برای تخمین قابلیت اطمینان سیستم‌های پیچیده است که مشکل کمبود داده را نیز از بین می‌برد. بر همین اساس، در این مقاله، ابتدا درخت خطای مربوط به شکست سازة یک ماهواره‌بر سوخت مایع طراحی و سپس به شبکة بیزین تبدیل شده است. در نهایت با استفاده از نظرات خبره‌های سیستم و تخمین پارامترهای شرطی مدل با استفاده از زنجیرة ماکوف مونت کارلو، قابلیت اطمینان کارکرد صحیح سازة یک ماهواره‌بر تخمین زده شده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Designing an Estimation Pattern for Reliability of Launch Vehicle Structure with Bayesian Networks
نویسندگان [English]
- S. M. M. Sharifi
- H. Gholami Mazinan
- K. Shahanaghi
- M. Karbasian
چکیده [English]
Failures identification of vital and sensitive products and their reliability estimation, before applying affects design improvement of them. On the other hand, because of lack of data,reliability estimation of some systems such asspace products is hard and sometimes impossible. Bayesian networks method is a graphical model with high efficiency for reliability estimation of complex systems and it can also eliminate problem of data shortage. Accordingly, at this paper, first, fault tree related to structure of launch vehicle with liquid fuel has been designed and then mapped into Bayesian networks. Finally using expert decision of system and estimation of model conditional parameters with Monte Carol Markov Chain, reliability of launch vehicle structure has been estimated.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Reliability
- fault tree
- Bayesian networks
- Expert
- Launch vehicle structure
- Monte carlo Markov chain
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